leo777
0xf74afe93b7410ec539cf0966b5b97e9870bbdad9
- Realised P&L
- $-1.8k
- Volume
- $128.1k
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $984.48
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration36.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.151 | 0.115 | $984.48 | −$305.52 |
| Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$96.00 |
| Harmonix FDV above $15M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.438 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$208.20 |
| Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw? · Yes | 0.247 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$99.00 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? · Yes | 0.226 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$113.11 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$686.40at 0.142Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?
- +$672.14at 0.261Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$283.07at 0.025Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$61.46at 0.955Was Milei hacked?
- +$49.06at 0.780Over $30M committed to the Gensyn public sale?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-10 01:36 | Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.92 | $109.48 |
| 07-09 23:54 | Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $27.30 |
| 07-09 14:37 | Will France vs. Morocco end in a draw? | BUY | 0.2475 | $99.00 |
| 07-07 14:04 | Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07? | BUY | 0.08 | $96.00 |
| 07-05 22:35 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.051 | $0.31 |
| 06-23 01:27 | Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | SELL | 0.05 | $100.00 |
| 06-22 23:08 | Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? | BUY | 0.59 | $1.2k |
| 06-21 06:18 | Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.017 | $327.25 |
| 06-14 14:47 | Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.016 | $124.16 |
| 06-14 14:31 | Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.016 | $99.04 |
| 06-12 12:30 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.025 | $50.00 |
| 06-10 01:29 | Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.025 | $50.00 |
| 05-31 08:21 | Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.019 | $100.70 |
| 05-30 09:59 | China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.07 | $117.74 |
| 05-30 09:49 | Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.2554611345 | $436.84 |