0xf724e04d47697c4bea883804106daf5a6da285cc
0xf724e04d47697c4bea883804106daf5a6da285cc
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $195.2k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $3.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration38.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Yes | 0.063 | 0.029 | $1.2k | −$1.5k |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.343 | 0.285 | $1.0k | −$211.74 |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.190 | 0.255 | $630.01 | +$160.59 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? · Yes | 0.189 | 0.034 | $154.07 | −$701.72 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.369Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$559.39at 0.250Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$418.66at 0.567Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?
- +$413.33at 0.708Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$364.15at 0.486US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 15:46 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $469.42 |
| 10-29 01:32 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.3299999998 | $423.16 |
| 10-27 22:47 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.3499999999 | $829.49 |
| 09-13 05:42 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.06 | $276.77 |
| 09-08 23:54 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.0556053547 | $533.07 |
| 09-07 23:40 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.0565640877 | $1.0k |
| 09-07 23:38 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.914 | $992.82 |
| 08-24 17:32 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | SELL | 0.005 | $40.34 |
| 08-18 14:54 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.7096709915 | $80.95 |
| 08-17 21:23 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.6909864657 | $175.12 |
| 08-11 20:45 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5639837436 | $819.89 |
| 08-11 20:44 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.81 | $827.15 |
| 08-07 15:07 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $114.22 |
| 08-07 15:04 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $150.77 |
| 08-04 17:43 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.4837878209 | $718.94 |