0xf724e04d47697c4bea883804106daf5a6da285cc
- Realised P&L
- $-3.1k
- Volume
- $142.6k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $1.7k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)41.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? · Yes | 0.084 | 0.055 | $561.22 | −$298.93 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes | 0.211 | 0.205 | $558.26 | −$16.42 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? · Yes | 0.189 | 0.095 | $430.49 | −$425.30 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · Yes | 0.083 | 0.021 | $172.64 | −$494.89 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.369Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?
- +$559.39at 0.250Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$432.37at 0.705Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
- +$177.05at 0.360Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$83.16at 0.740Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 19:02 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.2 | $181.55 |
| 07-25 02:01 | Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.0842951632 | $860.15 |
| 07-25 01:55 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | SELL | 0.0902633176 | $728.17 |
| 07-23 14:51 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.29 | $424.46 |
| 07-21 12:34 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.2699999997 | $435.97 |
| 07-17 12:55 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.2299999994 | $270.61 |
| 07-17 09:35 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.0786861042 | $546.12 |
| 07-16 18:56 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.22 | $168.91 |
| 07-08 14:12 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $491.38 |
| 07-08 14:10 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.95 | $658.45 |
| 07-08 14:09 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.0858121872 | $788.94 |
| 07-08 14:05 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.95 | $658.44 |
| 07-07 14:31 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.92 | $425.10 |
| 07-01 11:55 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.7048564528 | $1.3k |
| 06-30 09:46 | Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $319.89 |