0xf63de2ad5ce8c7e81760ad2611bdb3ac0e72c4cb
- Realised P&L
- $-13.10
- Volume
- $574.28
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $12.21
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.8% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.717 | 0.540 | $8.93 | −$2.92 |
| Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.390 | $2.44 | +$0.44 |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.245 | $0.84 | −$0.16 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.47at 0.730Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- +$1.69at 0.640Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?
- +$1.51at 0.570Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$0.89at 0.343Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time?
- +$0.88at 0.170Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 05:28 | Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 05:26 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.115 | $2.07 |
| 09-15 21:17 | Will Somali pirates successfully seize a vessel by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7169747803 | $11.85 |
| 09-15 21:16 | Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | SELL | 0.96 | $10.51 |
| 09-12 20:21 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.1109999878 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 20:21 | Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.1109999878 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 19:45 | Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.2899999884 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 21:01 | Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | SELL | 0.65 | $1.97 |
| 07-19 20:23 | Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Argentina? | BUY | 0.089999919 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 16:00 | Will Spain win on 2026-07-19? | BUY | 0.4274998076 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 15:53 | Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Argentina? | BUY | 0.032 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 15:52 | Exact Score: Spain 3 - 2 Argentina? | SELL | 0.033 | $1.18 |
| 07-19 15:51 | Spain vs. Argentina: Will the Match Go to Extra Time? | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 15:48 | Spain leading at halftime? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 07-19 12:58 | Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Argentina? | BUY | 0.0419999612 | $1.00 |