elv
0xf5fddbce23957217451b2517ab03744279123348
- Realised P&L
- $1.8k
- Volume
- $51.1k
- Markets traded
- 66
- Open portfolio
- $1.3k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded66
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.190 | 0.960 | $959.50 | +$769.50 |
| Will Kylian Mbappé finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.555 | $138.75 | +$6.25 |
| Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.400 | $80.00 | −$20.00 |
| Will Khvicha Kvaratskhelia finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.153 | 0.104 | $73.15 | −$33.95 |
| Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 3 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · No | 0.160 | 0.145 | $72.50 | −$7.50 |
| Will Bruno Fernandes win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.001 | $1.92 | −$55.29 |
| Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.001 | $0.12 | −$5.04 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026? · No | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$569.23at 0.260Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?
- +$516.64at 0.150Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026?
- +$419.03at 0.547Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$326.89at 0.356Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" during December FOMC Press Conference?
- +$320.26at 0.273Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 18:46 | Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | SELL | 0.006 | $5.73 |
| 09-08 18:42 | Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-09-09? | BUY | 0.45 | $45.00 |
| 09-08 18:41 | Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) | BUY | 0.39 | $78.00 |
| 08-24 06:32 | Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $190.00 |
| 08-24 06:22 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0904903215 | $95.00 |
| 08-22 17:50 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1048823692 | $200.00 |
| 07-23 07:48 | Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27? | BUY | 0.261 | $83.52 |
| 07-14 20:47 | France vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 | SELL | 0.46 | $92.00 |
| 07-14 19:45 | France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score in First Half | SELL | 0.08 | $24.00 |
| 07-12 15:00 | Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Spain? | BUY | 0.031 | $15.50 |
| 07-12 14:49 | Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | SELL | 0.451 | $214.76 |
| 07-10 18:21 | Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ shots | BUY | 0.439999993 | $30.00 |
| 07-09 17:18 | Valorant: 100 Thieves vs MIBR LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup Playoffs | BUY | 0.5399999985 | $36.00 |
| 07-09 17:04 | GPT-5.6 released by July 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.017 | $20.00 |
| 07-09 15:01 | Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals | BUY | 0.5299999966 | $60.00 |