guiyujin
0xf5ecc1752d79b30f18c557cafcf4caa44f0aab2b
- Realised P&L
- $26.70
- Volume
- $96.6k
- Markets traded
- 35
- Open portfolio
- $59.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded35
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration22.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)63.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration81.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? · No | 0.930 | 0.959 | $48.77 | +$1.45 |
| Probable FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.964 | 0.926 | $11.11 | −$0.46 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.25at 0.470Seeker FDV above $100M one day after launch?
- +$17.71at 0.500Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of February?
- +$16.58at 0.780Will Khamenei visit Russia by June 30?
- +$13.29at 0.631Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m?
- +$6.68at 0.991No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03-20 12:25 | Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 10 be between 60 and 70? | BUY | 0.996 | $26.00 |
| 03-18 06:52 | Netanyahu out by March 31? | BUY | 0.03 | $0.30 |
| 03-18 05:51 | Will "Undertone" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 9m and 10m? | SELL | 0.19 | $1.90 |
| 03-16 07:02 | Will "Scream 7" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 8.5m? | BUY | 0.47 | $9.40 |
| 03-13 04:55 | Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.53 | $1.06 |
| 03-10 05:34 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | SELL | 0.083 | $8.30 |
| 03-10 04:52 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? | BUY | 0.099 | $4.95 |
| 03-06 13:52 | AWS service disrupted by March 31? | SELL | 0.31 | $3.10 |
| 03-06 11:58 | AWS service disrupted by March 31? | BUY | 0.3 | $3.00 |
| 03-04 11:39 | Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on March 4? | BUY | 0.56 | $2.80 |
| 03-04 11:29 | Probable FDV above $500M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.964 | $11.57 |
| 03-02 15:24 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 7th? | SELL | 0.90679 | $36.27 |
| 03-01 14:29 | Will Hyperliquid perform an airdrop by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.72 | $35.99 |
| 02-23 07:43 | Will Khamenei visit Russia by June 30? | BUY | 0.78 | $86.79 |
| 02-18 03:16 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.938 | $231.74 |