0xF5e47CaF8B2E23aa9230D70758bDb2c9747F471a-1746012744983
0xf5e47caf8b2e23aa9230d70758bdb2c9747f471a
- Realised P&L
- $9.2k
- Volume
- $548.5k
- Markets traded
- 557
- Open portfolio
- $2.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded557
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
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- +$1.1kat 0.180Will Artemis II launch by March 31?
- +$646.44at 0.191Will Artemis II launch by February 28?
- +$643.31at 0.149Will the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) win between 200 and 249 seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?
- +$630.74at 0.278Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-16 13:02 | Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.34 | $65.72 |
| 09-15 22:41 | Will Fatima Ezzahra El Mansouri be the next Prime Minister of Morocco? | SELL | 0.25 | $5.41 |
| 09-14 15:19 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 14, 2026? | BUY | 0.02 | $2.70 |
| 09-13 21:54 | Will voter turnout in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election be 88% or more? | SELL | 0.07 | $0.70 |
| 09-13 21:16 | Will Ehsan Kangarani win the next Göttingen mayoral election? | BUY | 0.03 | $2.34 |
| 09-13 21:05 | Will Patricia Mair win the next Salzgitter mayoral election? | BUY | 0.0152557624 | $4.96 |
| 09-13 19:57 | Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win less than 16% of all valid votes? | SELL | 0.032 | $5.44 |
| 09-13 19:44 | Will Moderate Party (M) win at least 20% of all valid votes? | SELL | 0.3757631808 | $94.79 |
| 09-12 19:35 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 12, 2026? | SELL | 0.889 | $32.00 |
| 09-12 19:12 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 12, 2026? | SELL | 0.8866666667 | $13.30 |
| 09-12 18:48 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.31 | $3.10 |
| 09-12 13:23 | Will Russia target Kyiv on September 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $2.21 |
| 09-12 12:59 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19? | SELL | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 09-12 11:25 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 19? | SELL | 0.5 | $27.50 |
| 09-11 23:35 | Will the Centre Party (C) win the fifth most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.22 | $56.52 |