macabro-labs
0xf5b0c5f636e753de0eb93fe028d808d36afbaedc
- Realised P&L
- $131.03
- Volume
- $8.9k
- Markets traded
- 53
- Open portfolio
- $2.87
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded53
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ethereum reach $3,000 September 21-27? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.185 | $1.54 | +$0.46 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.000 | 0.206 | $1.32 | +$1.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$133.40at 0.650Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$114.40at 0.600Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate parliamentary elections?
- +$46.80at 0.350Will UConn win the 2026 Women's NCAA Tournament?
- +$35.95at 0.768Will Russia enter Serhiivka by March 31?
- +$25.00at 0.750US forces enter Iran by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 08:30 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 September 21-27? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.08 |
| 08-25 18:14 | Will "People" be said 200+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of August 24? | BUY | 0.991 | $16.42 |
| 08-24 19:17 | Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.234 | $1.50 |
| 03-27 09:07 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | SELL | 0.9645 | $48.23 |
| 03-26 12:45 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $75.00 |
| 03-25 13:30 | Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? | SELL | 0.9683741155 | $104.00 |
| 03-25 12:35 | Will Cintas (CTAS) beat quarterly earnings? | SELL | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 03-25 06:22 | Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31? | BUY | 0.874 | $43.70 |
| 03-24 14:35 | Will Cintas (CTAS) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.94 | $25.20 |
| 03-23 18:20 | Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 23? | SELL | 0.998 | $49.90 |
| 03-23 13:29 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.609 | $39.59 |
| 03-23 11:36 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? | SELL | 0.999 | $29.97 |
| 03-23 11:35 | Will Tesla deliver between 350000 and 375000 vehicles in Q1 2026 | BUY | 0.8 | $72.00 |
| 03-23 09:13 | Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on March 23? | BUY | 0.834 | $20.02 |
| 03-23 08:29 | Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the March meeting? | BUY | 0.51 | $47.43 |