newguy666
0xf579036e211211ab1d5d944f1665c394d5959989
- Realised P&L
- $21.1k
- Volume
- $1.33M
- Markets traded
- 617
- Open portfolio
- $4.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded617
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration65.1% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another Fed rate hike in 2026? · Yes | 0.842 | 0.695 | $2.1k | −$441.86 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.987 | $987.00 | +$227.00 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.701 | 0.547 | $273.50 | −$77.00 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.825 | $246.77 | −$1.50 |
| Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $150M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.445 | $133.50 | −$67.50 |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026? · Yes | 0.480 | 0.565 | $113.00 | +$17.00 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.180 | 0.255 | $92.59 | +$27.23 |
| Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.145 | $41.76 | −$53.28 |
| Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch? · Yes | 0.600 | 0.770 | $15.40 | +$3.40 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.125 | $2.16 | −$7.84 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.0kat 0.643Fed rate hike in 2026?
- +$3.0kat 0.790Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$2.1kat 0.829Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?
- +$2.0kat 0.756Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May?
- +$1.7kat 0.733Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 15:38 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.16 | $64.64 |
| 11-01 15:38 | Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.26 | $55.64 |
| 10-28 20:18 | Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.83 | $4.15 |
| 10-28 20:15 | Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $800.00 |
| 10-28 20:14 | Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $800.00 |
| 10-28 20:14 | Another Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.8 | $800.00 |
| 10-25 05:33 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October? | SELL | 0.02661 | $2.66 |
| 10-01 09:43 | Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $76.80 |
| 10-01 05:09 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in October? | BUY | 0.79 | $79.00 |
| 09-30 07:10 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in October? | BUY | 0.901 | $101.93 |
| 09-25 03:03 | Valorant: Karmine Corp vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Champions Group D | BUY | 0.82 | $21.87 |
| 09-23 09:18 | Will Jumper's FDV be greater than $100M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.6 | $12.00 |
| 09-23 09:18 | Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.84 | $1.2k |
| 09-18 07:00 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September? | BUY | 0.54 | $6.40 |
| 09-18 06:59 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September? | BUY | 0.5391313789 | $74.48 |