newguy666
0xf579036e211211ab1d5d944f1665c394d5959989
- Realised P&L
- $22.7k
- Volume
- $1.30M
- Markets traded
- 600
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded600
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration71.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.505 | $757.50 | +$217.50 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September? · Yes | 0.768 | 0.835 | $480.01 | +$38.30 |
| Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? · Yes | 0.693 | 0.770 | $176.35 | +$17.63 |
| Will Ink launch a token by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.255 | $73.44 | −$21.60 |
| Israel closes its airspace by September 30? · No | 0.330 | 0.015 | $7.37 | −$149.47 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.175 | $3.02 | −$6.98 |
| Will Phantom Blade Zero win Game of the Year at the 2026 Game Awards? · Yes | 0.088 | 0.054 | $2.73 | −$1.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$10.6kat 0.124Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?
- +$6.5kat 0.652Fed rate hike in 2026?
- +$3.0kat 0.790Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
- +$2.8kat 0.681Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?
- +$2.4kat 0.704Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 01:38 | Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? | BUY | 0.7 | $48.32 |
| 09-17 01:38 | Will Google be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)? | BUY | 0.69 | $110.40 |
| 09-15 01:00 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.12 | $748.71 |
| 09-12 07:56 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner | BUY | 0.4531902632 | $50.00 |
| 09-12 07:55 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner | SELL | 0.18 | $54.00 |
| 09-12 07:38 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner | BUY | 0.35 | $105.00 |
| 09-12 06:29 | LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner | BUY | 0.4699999988 | $100.00 |
| 09-11 05:38 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.7699999948 | $44.36 |
| 09-11 05:38 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.7699999994 | $640.89 |
| 09-11 05:37 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in September? | BUY | 0.7628392861 | $198.18 |
| 09-10 22:11 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in September? | BUY | 0.87 | $43.50 |
| 09-10 22:11 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in September? | BUY | 0.8516690865 | $204.46 |
| 09-10 22:09 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 in September? | BUY | 0.9092434205 | $2.0k |
| 09-10 15:48 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September? | SELL | 0.2815526265 | $337.29 |
| 09-10 12:43 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September? | SELL | 0.29 | $26.10 |