henwende
0xf56b240c784c05b4bc6860d7afe07c951788d7cb
- Realised P&L
- $-17.22
- Volume
- $13.8k
- Markets traded
- 89
- Open portfolio
- $13.62
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded89
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $11.41 | +$0.01 |
| Will the Republicans win Leavenworth County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.730 | $2.21 | −$0.03 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 13? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.20 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.80 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 27? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.20 |
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.63 |
| Bulls vs. Hornets · Hornets | 0.440 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 17? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Heat vs. Hornets · Hornets | 0.670 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.51at 0.750Giants vs. Rams
- +$0.44at 0.997Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?
- +$0.30at 0.998Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
- +$0.30at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?
- +$0.25at 0.998Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on April 23?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 11:39 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.40 |
| 10-18 11:39 | Will the Republicans win Leavenworth County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7399997621 | $2.24 |
| 09-21 14:18 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.996 | $11.60 |
| 09-21 14:14 | Giants vs. Rams | BUY | 0.7399998816 | $1.50 |
| 08-28 09:11 | Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.10 |
| 07-23 08:33 | Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.10 |
| 06-12 06:32 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.9869999996 | $15.00 |
| 06-12 06:32 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 13? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.20 |
| 06-12 06:32 | Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | BUY | 0.99 | $1.00 |
| 06-12 06:32 | Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? | BUY | 0.9879997313 | $1.00 |
| 06-12 06:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.23 |
| 06-12 06:31 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? | BUY | 0.998999334 | $1.20 |
| 06-05 01:39 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $129.00 |
| 05-30 03:09 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? | BUY | 0.998999993 | $125.00 |
| 05-28 01:20 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $125.00 |