PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

cup22

0xf4975999b3714df8a3cdc8aa2a36f840972a6a37

Realised P&L
$66.45
Volume
$70.4k
Markets traded
15
Open portfolio
$1.0k

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
BlockerMarkets traded15
Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
CautionProfit concentration47.0% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample16 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)68.8%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration73.9% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No0.5000.981$765.68+$375.20
Valantis FDV above $300M one day after launch? · No0.7900.850$174.25+$12.30
Valantis FDV above $200M one day after launch? · No0.7900.830$80.57+$3.88
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes0.5000.019$15.23−$375.19

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-31 05:28Valantis FDV above $200M one day after launch?BUY0.79$76.69
10-31 05:28Valantis FDV above $300M one day after launch?BUY0.79$161.95
09-20 09:14Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?BUY0.955$156.49
08-26 19:24Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?BUY0.959$501.10
07-14 07:40Hotstuff FDV above $50M one day after launch?BUY0.14$1.40
07-07 16:36Spread: Argentina (-2.5)BUY0.94$5.13
06-28 21:00Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?SELL0.15$0.15
06-25 17:49Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?BUY0.92$106.37