cup22
0xf4975999b3714df8a3cdc8aa2a36f840972a6a37
- Realised P&L
- $66.45
- Volume
- $70.4k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $1.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration47.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample16 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration73.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.981 | $765.68 | +$375.20 |
| Valantis FDV above $300M one day after launch? · No | 0.790 | 0.850 | $174.25 | +$12.30 |
| Valantis FDV above $200M one day after launch? · No | 0.790 | 0.830 | $80.57 | +$3.88 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.019 | $15.23 | −$375.19 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$23.41at 0.910Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?
- +$5.45at 0.024Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$5.40at 0.528Will LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?
- +$4.79at 0.510Spread: Spain (-5.5)
- +$4.24at 0.294Hotstuff FDV above $50M one day after launch?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 05:28 | Valantis FDV above $200M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.79 | $76.69 |
| 10-31 05:28 | Valantis FDV above $300M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.79 | $161.95 |
| 09-20 09:14 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.955 | $156.49 |
| 08-26 19:24 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.959 | $501.10 |
| 07-14 07:40 | Hotstuff FDV above $50M one day after launch? | BUY | 0.14 | $1.40 |
| 07-07 16:36 | Spread: Argentina (-2.5) | BUY | 0.94 | $5.13 |
| 06-28 21:00 | Will France be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? | SELL | 0.15 | $0.15 |
| 06-25 17:49 | Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? | BUY | 0.92 | $106.37 |