PolyBot

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Traders

Cyclone

0xf4544ad911122d6abcafede027c01671e3d77ecc

Realised P&L
$150.82
Volume
$120.3k
Markets traded
664
Open portfolio
$335.24

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded664
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration48.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration9.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes0.1060.040$30.41$51.08
China x Japan military clash before 2027? · Yes0.0770.055$29.70$11.90
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? · No0.0590.040$24.43$12.26
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31? · Yes0.4900.570$23.27+$3.27
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? · Yes0.1450.034$20.10$66.90
Will Hezbollah disarm by December 31? · Yes0.1260.095$19.01$6.15
Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? · Yes0.0570.085$18.70+$6.20
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? · No0.0490.074$17.97+$5.97
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No0.3090.171$15.34$12.45
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? · Yes0.0840.080$15.20$0.80
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? · Yes0.2590.115$14.38$18.02
Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes0.1060.055$13.20$12.20
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30? · Yes0.0530.200$11.33+$8.33
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No0.4400.555$11.10+$2.30
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.2030.065$10.40$22.10

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-03 07:44US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?BUY0.4899999939$20.00
09-03 07:36US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30?BUY0.059999946$1.00
09-03 07:21Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?BUY0.0699999797$3.00
08-14 05:35Will Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat?BUY0.289999964$5.00
08-11 06:01Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?BUY0.2599999272$2.00
08-11 01:13Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?BUY0.299999955$4.00
08-10 08:48Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?BUY0.0509999762$2.00
08-10 08:37Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?BUY0.299999955$4.00
08-10 08:34Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?SELL0.039$2.18
08-10 08:34Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?SELL0.64$25.60
08-08 19:35Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?BUY0.0419999804$2.00
08-08 19:33Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?BUY0.2899999579$4.00
08-05 07:16Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?BUY0.004$1.00
08-05 07:06Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?BUY0.169999986$9.60
08-05 07:06Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?BUY0.24$9.60