Cyclone
0xf4544ad911122d6abcafede027c01671e3d77ecc
- Realised P&L
- $150.82
- Volume
- $120.3k
- Markets traded
- 664
- Open portfolio
- $335.24
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded664
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)20.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration9.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.1kat 0.390Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$773.73at 0.366Will Team Falcons win The International 2025 Tournament?
- +$497.92at 0.004Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- +$211.58at 0.035Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- +$145.90at 0.071Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-03 07:44 | US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31? | BUY | 0.4899999939 | $20.00 |
| 09-03 07:36 | US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by September 30? | BUY | 0.059999946 | $1.00 |
| 09-03 07:21 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.0699999797 | $3.00 |
| 08-14 05:35 | Will Connie Chan win the CA-11 House seat? | BUY | 0.289999964 | $5.00 |
| 08-11 06:01 | Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | BUY | 0.2599999272 | $2.00 |
| 08-11 01:13 | Will Peggy Flanagan be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | BUY | 0.299999955 | $4.00 |
| 08-10 08:48 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.0509999762 | $2.00 |
| 08-10 08:37 | Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | BUY | 0.299999955 | $4.00 |
| 08-10 08:34 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | SELL | 0.039 | $2.18 |
| 08-10 08:34 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | SELL | 0.64 | $25.60 |
| 08-08 19:35 | Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? | BUY | 0.0419999804 | $2.00 |
| 08-08 19:33 | Will Angie Craig be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Minnesota? | BUY | 0.2899999579 | $4.00 |
| 08-05 07:16 | Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? | BUY | 0.004 | $1.00 |
| 08-05 07:06 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.169999986 | $9.60 |
| 08-05 07:06 | Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | BUY | 0.24 | $9.60 |