Semen-Demon
0xf440d2ae2b1e4bbc0d1184186114d4b94a962747
- Realised P&L
- $-19.0k
- Volume
- $872.3k
- Markets traded
- 116
- Open portfolio
- $3.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded116
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$17.0kat 0.2382024 presidential election: GOP wins by 65-104
- +$1.1kat 0.349Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?
- +$753.88at 0.130Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
- +$587.88at 0.770US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$512.51at 0.660Cardinals vs. Dolphins
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-08 23:23 | Blue wave in 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $2.30 |
| 09-08 23:23 | Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.15 |
| 09-08 23:22 | Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? | SELL | 0.0045533753 | $1.80 |
| 09-08 23:22 | Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire? | SELL | 0.0083910479 | $0.48 |
| 08-29 01:12 | Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%? | BUY | 0.12 | $4.65 |
| 08-29 01:12 | Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%? | BUY | 0.071 | $12.57 |
| 08-28 19:44 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.05699311 | $1.00 |
| 08-28 19:44 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.0510000006 | $4.87 |
| 08-28 19:44 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.099009901 | $1.00 |
| 08-28 18:24 | Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%? | BUY | 0.069 | $7.49 |
| 08-28 18:24 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.042 | $10.00 |
| 08-28 18:23 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.05 | $3.40 |
| 08-28 18:23 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.0967131665 | $4.06 |
| 08-28 17:05 | Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and 223+ House seats after the 2026 midterms? | BUY | 0.029 | $0.43 |
| 08-28 17:04 | Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | BUY | 0.032 | $0.22 |