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Traders

Semen-Demon

0xf440d2ae2b1e4bbc0d1184186114d4b94a962747

Realised P&L
$-19.0k
Volume
$872.3k
Markets traded
116
Open portfolio
$3.7k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.2%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded116
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration33.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)34.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration35.5% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes0.1170.090$1.3k$385.97
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes0.1460.105$731.93$287.14
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes0.0560.042$591.00$206.15
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes0.0420.030$454.91$171.12
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 55 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes0.0290.015$202.43$205.22
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 56 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? · Yes0.0250.011$180.68$225.60
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%? · Yes0.1270.115$116.85$12.32
Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%? · Yes0.0730.063$63.90$11.22
Blue wave in 2026? · No0.2080.175$44.81$8.59
Will the Republican Party hold more governorships after the 2026 midterms? · Yes0.3500.270$17.12$5.11
Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and 223+ House seats after the 2026 midterms? · Yes0.0350.026$5.09$1.80
Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms? · Yes0.0330.003$1.59$19.44
Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and ≤207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? · Yes0.0360.003$0.13$1.78
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with Israel in July? · Yes0.4480.000$0.00$628.48
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.4170.000$0.00$125.10

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-08 23:23Blue wave in 2026?BUY0.23$2.30
09-08 23:23Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?SELL0.003$0.15
09-08 23:22Will Karishma Manzur be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?SELL0.0045533753$1.80
09-08 23:22Will Chris Pappas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?SELL0.0083910479$0.48
08-29 01:12Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 4% and 6%?BUY0.12$4.65
08-29 01:12Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?BUY0.071$12.57
08-28 19:44Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.05699311$1.00
08-28 19:44Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.0510000006$4.87
08-28 19:44Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.099009901$1.00
08-28 18:24Will the Democratic Party win the popular vote in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives midterm elections by between 2% and 4%?BUY0.069$7.49
08-28 18:24Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.042$10.00
08-28 18:23Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.05$3.40
08-28 18:23Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?BUY0.0967131665$4.06
08-28 17:05Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and 223+ House seats after the 2026 midterms?BUY0.029$0.43
08-28 17:04Will Republicans hold 53+ Senate seats and 208–222 House seats after the 2026 midterms?BUY0.032$0.22