0xf42e1b768c296236b4d8f6bfd3a41c6185fd9c0c
- Realised P&L
- $19.64
- Volume
- $97.23
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $34.89
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar20.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · Yes | 0.210 | 1.000 | $9.52 | +$7.52 |
| Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.600 | $5.45 | +$3.45 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · Yes | 0.220 | 0.415 | $3.77 | +$1.77 |
| Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 1.000 | $2.60 | +$0.60 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.440 | 0.235 | $2.14 | −$1.86 |
| Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? · No | 0.491 | 0.493 | $2.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will USA Today (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.645 | $1.97 | +$0.38 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.550 | $1.97 | +$0.36 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? · No | 0.720 | 0.705 | $1.96 | −$0.04 |
| Will Disney say "Moana" during earnings call? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.645 | $1.82 | −$0.18 |
| Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $75 Week of August 3 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.520 | $1.63 | −$0.38 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.06at 0.330Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.96at 0.440Will Trump say "Worker" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?
- +$1.47at 0.520Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?
- +$1.27at 0.610Will Warsh say "Projection" during July Press Conference?
- +$1.19at 0.610Will Trump say "Data Center" during cabinet meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 16:40 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.7199997408 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 08:36 | Will Disney say "Moana" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.71 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 00:35 | Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in July? | BUY | 0.4909999661 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 16:35 | Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $61 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 08:34 | Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $75 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 00:29 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 08-03 00:28 | Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.3299998927 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 16:27 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.4499999441 | $1.61 |
| 08-02 07:16 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 07:14 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4499999212 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 23:01 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099999286 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 14:56 | Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 02:08 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 30 to August 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $1.56 |
| 07-31 18:08 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999268 | $1.95 |
| 07-31 10:07 | Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.91 |