PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

ra5tadark

0xf41f1b496e2b908babc215d6401d67a596d519d2

Realised P&L
$-960.87
Volume
$1.07M
Markets traded
5,204
Open portfolio
$23.83

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
CautionMarkets traded5,204
High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
ClearProfit concentration7.3% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration33.8% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 NY-17 House election by 0%-3%? · Yes0.3360.203$8.00−$5.24
Paxton flips Talarico for Texas Senate by November 2? · Yes0.3300.145$2.90−$3.70
Will PPI YoY be 6.4% in October? · Yes0.1700.104$2.09−$1.31
Will there be at least 6500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? · No0.3500.245$1.23−$0.53
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? · Yes0.2000.205$1.02+$0.03
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30? · Yes0.1200.032$0.64−$1.76
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026? · No0.1900.125$0.63−$0.33
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 6%-9%? · Yes0.0420.036$0.36−$0.06
Houthis enter Aden by October 31, 2026? · Yes0.0330.028$0.36−$0.07
Will Top Esports win Worlds 2026? · Yes0.0060.006$0.33+$0.03
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0140.016$0.32+$0.04
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? · Yes0.0740.063$0.31−$0.06
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? · No0.0260.028$0.31+$0.02
Will STRC hit $100 by October 31? · Yes0.2300.220$0.29−$0.01
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in October? · Yes0.0090.009$0.28−$0.02

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
05-29 10:28Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?SELL0.265$0.25
05-29 10:28Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner?SELL0.005$0.15
05-29 10:28Will Cameron Kasky be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?SELL0.003$0.10
05-29 10:28Will Jared Kushner enter Iran by June 30?SELL0.021$0.11
05-29 10:27Will Bill Cosby be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?SELL0.013$0.43
05-29 10:27Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026?SELL0.01$0.75
05-29 10:27Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?SELL0.007$0.87
05-29 10:27No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting?SELL0.143$1.43
05-29 10:27 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?SELL0.33$1.65
05-29 10:26Will Alexandru Nazare be the next Prime Minister of Romania?SELL0.22$0.19
05-29 10:26Will Steven Tisch be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island?SELL0.058$0.34
05-29 10:26Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP?SELL0.25$0.72
05-29 10:26Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 Western Conference Finals MVP?SELL0.42$1.68
05-29 10:25Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?SELL0.667$1.24
05-28 19:45Will Sweden win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?SELL0.035$0.70