frontenac
0xf316b0e46a9a42650a0f0cff3f3ffff9e9694608
- Realised P&L
- $-265.82
- Volume
- $38.3k
- Markets traded
- 236
- Open portfolio
- $19.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded236
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration76.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$31.30at 0.304US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?
- +$25.71at 0.160Rockets vs. Kings
- +$14.40at 0.280US bank failure by March 31?
- +$9.83at 0.607Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?
- +$5.30at 0.470Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-12 04:19 | Will Donald Trump visit Israel in 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $3.75 |
| 01-12 04:05 | Rockets vs. Kings | SELL | 0.69 | $1.38 |
| 01-11 18:01 | Rockets vs. Kings | BUY | 0.16 | $9.60 |
| 01-11 17:58 | Nets vs. Grizzlies | BUY | 0.3 | $4.16 |
| 01-11 17:57 | Nets vs. Grizzlies | BUY | 0.3 | $3.00 |
| 01-11 17:52 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 13 to January 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $9.98 |
| 01-11 06:23 | Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | SELL | 0.651 | $9.77 |
| 01-09 17:27 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $14.91 |
| 01-09 17:26 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $9.94 |
| 01-09 17:26 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from January 9 to January 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $9.97 |
| 01-09 17:25 | Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $9.98 |
| 01-09 17:25 | Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.997 | $9.97 |
| 01-08 15:15 | Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $9.95 |
| 01-07 03:51 | Bruins vs. Kraken | BUY | 0.46 | $4.60 |
| 01-07 03:49 | Mavericks vs. Kings | BUY | 0.37 | $3.70 |