What.Could.Thing.7
0xf2d33b42844c825a8ee4322b217683ff048cdcbd
- Realised P&L
- $-8.0k
- Volume
- $485.5k
- Markets traded
- 11
- Open portfolio
- $16.8k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded11
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration96.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.121 | 0.055 | $16.1k | −$19.5k |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · No | 0.180 | 0.055 | $644.51 | −$1.5k |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · Yes | 0.058 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.0k |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.28 |
| Norway vs. England: Team to Advance · Norway | 0.355 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$925.27 |
| Netanyahu out by March 31? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.49at 0.215Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?
- +$-0.06at 0.826Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
- +$-325.52at 0.026Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$-1.0kat 0.257Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?
- +$-1.1kat 0.063Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 11:45 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.0599999992 | $1.54 |
| 10-31 01:09 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.0699999978 | $1.90 |
| 10-30 11:06 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.0699999965 | $1.00 |
| 10-30 11:06 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.07 | $404.00 |
| 10-30 11:06 | Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.0146111094 | $404.65 |
| 10-30 11:06 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.07 | $1.1k |
| 10-30 11:05 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.0342022168 | $495.01 |
| 10-30 11:05 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.0303628543 | $573.50 |
| 10-30 11:04 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.0699999978 | $1.90 |
| 10-29 07:53 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.30 |
| 10-28 07:07 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.0899999974 | $2.10 |
| 10-27 07:00 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.0899999974 | $2.10 |
| 10-26 07:42 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.0899999974 | $2.10 |
| 10-24 08:18 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.0899999969 | $2.00 |
| 10-23 14:11 | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.08 | $2.20 |