rabbit007
0xf2aa8381a08ec33467fbcdd0843aa31cb8d521fb
- Realised P&L
- $44.3k
- Volume
- $2.51M
- Markets traded
- 742
- Open portfolio
- $13.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded742
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration37.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.3kat 0.097Will Cintas (CTAS) beat its quarterly EPS estimate?
- +$6.0kat 0.323Less than 26m people watch Trump inauguration?
- +$5.1kat 0.250Will egg prices be between $5.00 and $5.25 in April?
- +$4.9kat 0.350US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?
- +$3.4kat 0.378Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 20:34 | Will Linke win between 11% and 14% of all valid second votes? | SELL | 0.18 | $41.67 |
| 09-17 17:13 | Will Tropical Storm Norbert strengthen to a hurricane? | SELL | 0.01 | $0.07 |
| 09-17 17:12 | Will SPD win between 25% and 28% of all valid second votes? | SELL | 0.03 | $0.58 |
| 09-17 17:12 | Will Hendrik Wüst be the next Chancellor of Germany? | SELL | 0.16 | $0.18 |
| 09-17 17:10 | Will SPD be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government? | SELL | 0.1629147368 | $30.95 |
| 09-17 11:34 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | BUY | 0.0641673719 | $63.99 |
| 09-17 10:00 | Will there be between 5 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30? | BUY | 0.2169294067 | $50.09 |
| 09-17 09:59 | Will there be between 0 and 5 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on September 30? | SELL | 0.75 | $243.91 |
| 09-17 09:58 | Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? | SELL | 0.2411079342 | $20.24 |
| 09-17 09:57 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.84 | $5.61 |
| 09-17 09:57 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.84 | $42.00 |
| 09-17 09:57 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.8398713991 | $378.14 |
| 09-17 09:56 | Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? | BUY | 0.8260227761 | $269.10 |
| 09-17 09:56 | Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20? | SELL | 0.2815958993 | $185.96 |
| 09-17 09:55 | Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027? | BUY | 0.0789973542 | $259.76 |