y4rrow
0xf29b060ab42c31afb6ed7b6aded05985b1e2961e
- Realised P&L
- $89.52
- Volume
- $35.1k
- Markets traded
- 57
- Open portfolio
- $27.86
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded57
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? · No | 0.920 | 0.955 | $15.21 | +$0.56 |
| Will the Democrats win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.092 | 0.021 | $2.42 | −$8.47 |
| Will the Democrats win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.099 | 0.027 | $2.19 | −$5.82 |
| Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.088 | 0.028 | $1.59 | −$3.41 |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.037 | $1.54 | −$12.45 |
| Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? · No | 0.096 | 0.045 | $1.40 | −$1.60 |
| Will the Democrats win the Massachusetts governor race in 2026? · No | 0.052 | 0.037 | $1.40 | −$0.54 |
| Tim Walz in jail by December 31? · No | 0.950 | 0.971 | $1.03 | +$0.02 |
| Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.080 | 0.063 | $0.78 | −$0.22 |
| Will the Democrats win the Oregon Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.080 | 0.018 | $0.29 | −$0.96 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$935.93at 0.405Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026?
- +$365.92at 0.216Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12PM ET
- +$214.01at 0.687Bruins vs. Sabres
- +$182.47at 0.623Canadiens vs. Lightning
- +$178.25at 0.184Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 12PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-17 20:04 | Will the Democrats win the Minnesota governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $36.38 |
| 08-17 20:04 | Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.9603703704 | $41.49 |
| 08-17 20:04 | Will the Democrats win the Hawaii governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.9510524439 | $90.67 |
| 08-17 20:03 | Will the Republicans win the Maine governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.954901352 | $95.35 |
| 08-17 20:03 | Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? | SELL | 0.7638600103 | $118.73 |
| 08-17 20:03 | Will the Democrats win the Kentucky Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.958 | $139.69 |
| 08-17 20:02 | Will the Democrats win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.9431583899 | $140.35 |
| 07-23 22:12 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.4055614926 | $173.73 |
| 07-23 22:12 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.3841543032 | $85.34 |
| 07-23 22:10 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.4080573248 | $64.06 |
| 07-23 22:09 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on July 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.380844431 | $180.00 |
| 05-27 16:30 | Will the Republicans win the Louisiana Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.8752033648 | $100.92 |
| 05-27 16:30 | Will the Republicans win the Nebraska governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.7315241619 | $162.13 |
| 05-27 16:30 | Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.865520551 | $194.79 |
| 05-27 16:29 | Will the Republicans win the Oklahoma governor race in 2026? | SELL | 0.6276051581 | $183.97 |