0xf2966813255fe67a9241cf4ff5ed9626af7b84f6
- Realised P&L
- $-3.0k
- Volume
- $164.1k
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $51.92
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)39.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.674 | 0.015 | $51.92 | −$2.3k |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.770 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.4k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.8kat 0.380US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$1.4kat 0.434Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
- +$981.04at 0.050Iran successfully targets shipping on June 27?
- +$920.69at 0.501Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?
- +$912.92at 0.689US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 03:09 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.5105662907 | $418.70 |
| 07-29 23:18 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.83 | $3.0k |
| 07-29 23:17 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | SELL | 0.999 | $3.0k |
| 07-29 07:59 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.6511286994 | $1.2k |
| 07-29 07:18 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.6535242641 | $410.74 |
| 07-28 09:51 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | SELL | 0.9751634451 | $1.7k |
| 07-20 02:09 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY | 0.6699999987 | $349.31 |
| 07-20 02:06 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.75 | $352.81 |
| 07-18 22:35 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY | 0.64 | $416.53 |
| 07-16 09:00 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BUY | 0.86 | $414.63 |
| 07-13 21:23 | Iran full airspace closure by July 31? | BUY | 0.6599999995 | $343.93 |
| 07-09 00:00 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.7299999981 | $343.41 |
| 07-08 23:57 | Iran full airspace closure by July 15? | BUY | 0.8323998752 | $346.86 |
| 07-01 00:29 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4524610778 | $171.73 |
| 06-30 06:24 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.5752843556 | $341.61 |