P4UL92
0xf293ef3ea906d8bb7156e31d3567311c4e541590
- Realised P&L
- $0.03
- Volume
- $163.16
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $12.29
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration27.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample9 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)88.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Albert Aníbal Arenas Yabar win the next Cusco mayoral elections? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.935 | $7.42 | +$2.42 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.440 | 0.165 | $1.88 | −$3.12 |
| Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on October 6? · No | 0.989 | 0.996 | $1.01 | +$0.01 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on October 8? · No | 0.984 | 0.982 | $1.00 | −$0.00 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.655 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.13at 0.939Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?
- +$0.09at 0.917Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?
- +$0.07at 0.938Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30?
- +$0.05at 0.950Will Ethereum reach $2,800 September 28-October 4?
- +$0.05at 0.954Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 4?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 16:32 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 17:41 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 5? | BUY | 0.9849994435 | $1.00 |
| 10-04 00:33 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on October 8? | BUY | 0.984 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 21:15 | Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on October 6? | BUY | 0.9889999901 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 16:11 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on October 4? | BUY | 0.9509999905 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 05:12 | Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.9729992703 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 03:55 | Will Ethereum reach $2,800 September 28-October 4? | BUY | 0.9459999962 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 19:28 | Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9139999689 | $1.00 |
| 09-30 16:46 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | BUY | 0.9369999906 | $2.00 |
| 09-30 16:31 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by September 30? | BUY | 0.937999955 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 20:09 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.9579993907 | $1.00 |
| 09-28 03:51 | Taylor Swift pregnant by September 30? | SELL | 0.0097625745 | $0.64 |
| 09-27 08:04 | Taylor Swift pregnant by September 30? | BUY | 0.0152864295 | $1.00 |
| 09-27 04:24 | Will Albert Aníbal Arenas Yabar win the next Cusco mayoral elections? | BUY | 0.629999995 | $5.00 |
| 09-27 02:45 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.4399999754 | $5.00 |