polwally4
0xf28ff4697bc86297e75460d27c35bb3b66090327
- Realised P&L
- $-237.30
- Volume
- $14.1k
- Markets traded
- 56
- Open portfolio
- $5.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded56
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)97.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$79.45at 0.557Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$53.16at 0.790Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
- +$33.33at 0.750Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$27.27at 0.880Will Donald Trump be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
- +$25.00at 0.800Nothing Ever Happens: November
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 13:47 | Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? | BUY | 0.73 | $100.00 |
| 10-31 13:43 | Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? | BUY | 0.9797778637 | $500.00 |
| 10-31 13:42 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7199999994 | $500.00 |
| 10-31 13:40 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.96 | $100.00 |
| 10-31 13:39 | Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.0969999999 | $100.00 |
| 10-31 13:39 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | BUY | 0.9095452269 | $100.00 |
| 10-31 13:38 | Will Zohran Mamdani be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? | BUY | 0.9669674342 | $100.00 |
| 10-31 13:38 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.7199999994 | $100.00 |
| 10-31 13:35 | Will Digger win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.9689999999 | $100.00 |
| 09-21 14:21 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.9689999999 | $100.00 |
| 09-21 14:20 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.92 | $100.00 |
| 04-01 02:27 | Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? | BUY | 0.9225235346 | $1000.00 |
| 03-28 14:38 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.75 | $100.00 |
| 03-18 18:00 | Nothing Ever Happens: Obama | BUY | 0.8977556108 | $100.00 |
| 03-18 17:46 | Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in March? | BUY | 0.5 | $50.00 |