FiscalLiberalSocialConservative
0xf22e73273a79788adcee6fa41c76f729fccf18f2
- Realised P&L
- $647.61
- Volume
- $198.9k
- Markets traded
- 381
- Open portfolio
- $17.40
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded381
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration57.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$623.38at 0.357Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?
- +$407.55at 0.287Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?
- +$242.43at 0.573Will Trump speak to Emmanuel Macron in July?
- +$222.55at 0.930US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$220.13at 0.360Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-15 07:06 | Will The Odyssey win Best Original Score at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.45 | $40.00 |
| 10-15 07:06 | Will The Odyssey win Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.46 | $20.33 |
| 10-15 07:06 | Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2028? | SELL | 0.89 | $15.25 |
| 10-15 07:06 | Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.94 | $15.76 |
| 10-15 07:06 | Will Andrew Scott be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.85 | $10.60 |
| 10-15 07:06 | Base FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.36 | $5.90 |
| 10-15 07:06 | Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | SELL | 0.23 | $16.40 |
| 10-15 07:06 | Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? | SELL | 0.61 | $3.05 |
| 08-26 20:40 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | SELL | 0.09 | $4.09 |
| 08-26 19:54 | Will Zohran Mamdani announce a Presidential run before 2028? | BUY | 0.89 | $15.25 |
| 08-26 19:29 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $79.45 |
| 08-26 19:29 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.47 | $116.04 |
| 08-26 18:22 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.48 | $3.92 |
| 08-26 17:12 | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.48 | $38.79 |
| 08-26 15:54 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $103.97 |