steplz
0xf1f3539b0df932115b110b9efacfe9799333d124
- Realised P&L
- $-637.34
- Volume
- $14.0k
- Markets traded
- 47
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded47
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration28.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample41 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)65.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration22.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? · No | 0.720 | 0.545 | $272.50 | −$87.50 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch? · No | 0.854 | 0.739 | $221.55 | −$34.65 |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.915 | $182.99 | +$27.00 |
| Will Extended launch a token by September 30 2026? · No | 0.340 | 0.992 | $148.72 | +$97.72 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? · No | 0.840 | 0.680 | $136.00 | −$32.00 |
| Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? · No | 0.800 | 0.610 | $91.50 | −$28.50 |
| Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.480 | 0.705 | $86.86 | +$27.72 |
| Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.243 | 0.249 | $49.90 | +$1.30 |
| Opensea FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.135 | $12.98 | −$48.55 |
| Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.598 | 0.009 | $5.45 | −$378.17 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$31.40at 0.360EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch?
- +$28.82at 0.550Metamask FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$11.60at 0.330Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-11?
- +$10.01at 0.510Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?
- +$4.20at 0.460Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-22 14:15 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET | SELL | 0.52 | $3.11 |
| 02-22 14:10 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET | SELL | 0.54 | $3.52 |
| 02-22 14:00 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET | SELL | 0.56 | $3.65 |
| 02-22 13:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET | SELL | 0.62 | $4.04 |
| 02-22 12:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET | SELL | 0.85 | $9.24 |
| 02-21 21:52 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET | SELL | 0.5 | $0.96 |
| 02-21 21:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET | SELL | 0.5 | $0.96 |
| 02-21 21:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $0.97 |
| 02-21 21:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $0.97 |
| 02-21 21:50 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET | SELL | 0.63 | $1.22 |
| 02-21 21:49 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $0.97 |
| 02-21 21:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $0.97 |
| 02-21 21:32 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET | SELL | 0.5 | $0.96 |
| 02-21 21:31 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET | BUY | 0.5099998317 | $0.97 |
| 02-21 21:30 | Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET | SELL | 0.55 | $2.75 |