8469
0xf1377d526fbe76a7824928415e5026982bff9cb6
- Realised P&L
- $178.01
- Volume
- $32.9k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $6.2k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration39.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample11 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? · No | 0.988 | 0.989 | $6.0k | +$3.04 |
| Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027? · Yes | 0.944 | 0.650 | $174.93 | −$79.14 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.32% in October? · Yes | 0.970 | 0.538 | $6.76 | −$5.43 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$70.85at 0.958Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
- +$51.96at 0.947Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30?
- +$15.16at 0.963Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.20% in September?
- +$15.11at 0.998Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?
- +$14.57at 0.984Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-06 14:56 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by October 31? | BUY | 0.988 | $6.0k |
| 10-05 19:32 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? | BUY | 0.999 | $219.78 |
| 10-05 19:32 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? | BUY | 0.999 | $1.2k |
| 10-05 19:31 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? | BUY | 0.998 | $1000.00 |
| 10-05 19:31 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? | BUY | 0.997 | $2.2k |
| 10-05 19:31 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? | BUY | 0.996 | $129.48 |
| 10-05 19:31 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? | BUY | 0.996 | $139.44 |
| 10-05 19:30 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.968 | $5.0k |
| 10-05 19:25 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? | BUY | 0.996 | $59.76 |
| 10-05 19:20 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? | BUY | 0.997 | $50.73 |
| 10-05 19:06 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 10-05 19:06 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.70% before 2027? | BUY | 0.92 | $9.20 |
| 10-05 18:48 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? | BUY | 0.997 | $100.03 |
| 10-05 18:48 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027? | BUY | 0.997 | $471.58 |
| 10-05 18:39 | Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027? | BUY | 0.87 | $4.35 |