glassred
0xf0fc2d0bf309f3c3cb6dbccde9d69968952cc715
- Realised P&L
- $4.6k
- Volume
- $16.77M
- Markets traded
- 59
- Open portfolio
- $2.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded59
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.3% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration97.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.115 | $2.1k | +$85.28 |
| Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? · Yes | 0.083 | 0.055 | $56.39 | −$28.85 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 5AM ET · Up | 0.955 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Bitcoin Up or Down on October 6? · Down | 0.400 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 12PM ET · Up | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.05 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 20, 11AM ET · Down | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.94 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.56 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7AM ET · Up | 0.052 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.72 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2AM ET · Up | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.09 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 8AM ET · Up | 0.226 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.2kat 0.007Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$1.1kat 0.007Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$600.61at 0.005Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$575.30at 0.007Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$553.04at 0.007Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 11:54 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7AM ET | BUY | 0.03 | $2.91 |
| 10-08 11:40 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7AM ET | SELL | 0.22 | $5.50 |
| 10-08 11:39 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 8, 7AM ET | SELL | 0.14 | $10.50 |
| 10-08 09:35 | Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? | SELL | 0.06 | $10.52 |
| 10-08 08:28 | Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? | SELL | 0.07 | $11.34 |
| 10-07 11:01 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.11 | $66.61 |
| 10-07 10:58 | Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? | BUY | 0.1182957623 | $28.39 |
| 10-05 16:03 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5? | SELL | 0.999 | $40.96 |
| 10-05 15:17 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5? | BUY | 0.15 | $12.30 |
| 09-20 16:25 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.12 | $397.16 |
| 09-08 08:51 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.11 | $11.00 |
| 08-25 15:16 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.11 | $170.50 |
| 08-20 19:27 | Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.001 | $60.00 |
| 08-20 18:56 | Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.001 | $60.00 |
| 08-07 07:51 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.036 | $18.60 |