glassred
0xf0fc2d0bf309f3c3cb6dbccde9d69968952cc715
- Realised P&L
- $4.7k
- Volume
- $16.53M
- Markets traded
- 50
- Open portfolio
- $1.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded50
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample47 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)68.1%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.090 | 0.135 | $656.59 | +$217.86 |
| Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.003 | $300.00 | −$180.00 |
| Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.003 | $234.24 | −$140.54 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.112 | 0.041 | $36.62 | −$64.68 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 25, 5AM ET · Up | 0.955 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.1k |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 12PM ET · Up | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.05 |
| US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.56 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 30, 2AM ET · Up | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$11.09 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.2kat 0.007Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$1.1kat 0.007Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$600.61at 0.005Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
- +$575.30at 0.007Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
- +$553.04at 0.007Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-27 10:32 | Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.69 |
| 07-21 08:11 | Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.003 | $150.27 |
| 07-21 08:03 | Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.004 | $31.00 |
| 07-21 08:00 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.11 | $152.84 |
| 07-15 08:56 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.035 | $4.52 |
| 07-08 13:41 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.042 | $3.27 |
| 06-26 09:06 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.056 | $396.24 |
| 06-26 09:05 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.057 | $30.84 |
| 06-26 08:52 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.057 | $47.77 |
| 06-08 14:09 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.064 | $292.51 |
| 05-07 12:52 | Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.005 | $3.63 |
| 04-08 10:00 | Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.006 | $1.80 |
| 03-14 14:41 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.102 | $34.93 |
| 03-14 12:06 | Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.007 | $104.39 |
| 03-14 11:53 | Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.007 | $25.96 |