tytytytyeyertye
0xf03dda90bcfe0f3c94f2ec02ad989f7e49c99224
- Realised P&L
- $4.23
- Volume
- $137.78
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $7.31
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.1%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration42.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration53.8% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.715 | $3.94 | +$0.03 |
| Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? · No | 0.800 | 0.984 | $2.83 | +$0.53 |
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? · Yes | 0.038 | 0.015 | $0.55 | −$0.89 |
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.79 |
| Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.641 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.01 |
| Washington Mystics vs. Los Angeles Sparks · Washington Mystics | 0.660 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.54 |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.48 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.35at 0.437Spurs vs. Thunder
- +$4.13at 0.547LoL: Galions vs Solary (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs
- +$1.39at 0.844Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?
- +$1.36at 0.805Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21?
- +$1.27at 0.736Will RB Leipzig win on 2026-04-24?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 08:26 | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.7099999038 | $3.91 |
| 10-16 14:12 | Will there be a Hormuz agreement, oil below $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? | BUY | 0.0379999998 | $1.44 |
| 09-28 01:03 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.8399999405 | $1.13 |
| 09-19 10:11 | Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6409999644 | $6.01 |
| 08-28 17:45 | Washington Mystics vs. Los Angeles Sparks | BUY | 0.6599999814 | $3.54 |
| 08-16 17:17 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.48 |
| 07-25 11:00 | Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? | BUY | 0.9639999963 | $5.19 |
| 07-12 14:25 | Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | BUY | 0.829999974 | $3.19 |
| 06-27 12:00 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? | BUY | 0.9609998554 | $2.04 |
| 06-19 10:22 | Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? | BUY | 0.84 | $7.51 |
| 06-12 22:13 | Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | BUY | 0.5899999242 | $1.79 |
| 05-29 15:00 | Spurs vs. Thunder | BUY | 0.4299999709 | $5.62 |
| 05-25 00:31 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | BUY | 0.9679999963 | $4.15 |
| 05-10 09:33 | Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-21? | BUY | 0.8 | $5.59 |
| 04-23 21:18 | Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? | BUY | 0.9369995774 | $2.04 |