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0xefdea8525a2c4bf8c96dc137322c1fbe81e265ab
- Realised P&L
- $-10.7k
- Volume
- $874.7k
- Markets traded
- 234
- Open portfolio
- $321.56
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded234
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration26.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration60.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.0kat 0.368Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?
- +$447.26at 0.829Will Iran strike UAE again in March?
- +$429.50at 0.723US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?
- +$418.44at 0.073Will Vance visit the Middle East by April 10?
- +$284.18at 0.271Will Iran strike Oman again in March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-04 04:58 | Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 4, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? | BUY | 0.1 | $50.00 |
| 09-03 13:58 | Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? | BUY | 0.0598404295 | $16.16 |
| 09-02 21:28 | Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? | SELL | 0.065 | $12.70 |
| 09-02 21:24 | Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? | BUY | 0.03 | $2.31 |
| 09-02 21:22 | Will Lacy and Marlon have fewer than 100 Fortnite deaths during the marathon? | BUY | 0.48 | $9.60 |
| 08-20 01:24 | Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-08-19? | BUY | 0.25 | $25.00 |
| 08-19 17:25 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.06 | $26.64 |
| 08-19 17:24 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL | 0.013 | $3.36 |
| 08-19 01:29 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL | 0.012 | $11.32 |
| 08-17 19:32 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.0326228597 | $61.54 |
| 08-17 18:17 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.17 | $102.00 |
| 08-16 22:44 | Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? | BUY | 0.01 | $3.40 |
| 08-16 07:31 | Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0365201054 | $50.45 |
| 08-16 07:31 | Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.47 | $39.01 |
| 08-16 04:13 | Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? | BUY | 0.0494474528 | $8.95 |