vino1234
0xefddc1d3285d0fe1b9f2aa06e04901f527a08370
- Realised P&L
- $19.9k
- Volume
- $1.12M
- Markets traded
- 1,158
- Open portfolio
- $5.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.8%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,158
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration31.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)62.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration10.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.4kat 0.263Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by May 22?
- +$1.0kat 0.736Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 15?
- +$978.23at 0.436FDA approves Cingulate's Ctx-1301?
- +$868.57at 0.020Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?
- +$799.19at 0.125Will Russia capture Zaliznychne by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 00:39 | Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement? | SELL | 0.6 | $7.20 |
| 09-17 00:29 | Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement? | SELL | 0.6 | $7.20 |
| 09-17 00:18 | Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement? | SELL | 0.6 | $7.20 |
| 09-17 00:07 | Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement? | SELL | 0.6 | $7.20 |
| 09-16 23:57 | Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement? | SELL | 0.6 | $7.20 |
| 09-16 23:47 | Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement? | SELL | 0.6 | $7.20 |
| 09-16 23:37 | Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement? | SELL | 0.6 | $7.20 |
| 09-16 22:27 | Will any aircraft land or take off at Kyiv Boryspil Airport by December 31? | SELL | 0.81 | $210.60 |
| 09-16 22:25 | Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $24.94 |
| 09-16 22:22 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $33.00 |
| 09-16 21:22 | Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.23 | $10.12 |
| 09-16 13:41 | Will California enact a law recognizing Jews as an ethnic group by December 31? | SELL | 0.1032786517 | $9.19 |
| 09-15 19:19 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26? | BUY | 0.2225 | $17.80 |
| 09-15 19:18 | Will SB Energy IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.05 | $4.10 |
| 09-15 13:24 | Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the December interest rate announcement? | BUY | 0.4845327273 | $53.30 |