0xEFB90c1feCfFB3874aB75b1E73Ee81bb87874383-1758826993606
0xefb90c1fecffb3874ab75b1e73ee81bb87874383
- Realised P&L
- $-358.96
- Volume
- $13.0k
- Markets traded
- 154
- Open portfolio
- $357.49
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded154
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.655 | $157.75 | +$27.75 |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? · No | 0.689 | 0.865 | $126.88 | +$25.88 |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? · Yes | 0.340 | 0.285 | $36.92 | −$7.09 |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? · Yes | 0.313 | 0.080 | $22.13 | −$64.40 |
| Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? · Yes | 0.345 | 0.180 | $10.42 | −$9.58 |
| Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026? · No | 0.390 | 0.265 | $3.40 | −$1.60 |
| Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 25, 2026? · No | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$37.39at 0.746Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
- +$35.80at 0.846Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
- +$31.26at 0.734Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET
- +$27.21at 0.254Will "World Cup" be said during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of July 6?
- +$19.30at 0.799Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-01 10:14 | Will Helen Zille be the next mayor of Johannesburg? | BUY | 0.64 | $20.00 |
| 09-01 10:13 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.76 | $20.00 |
| 09-01 10:12 | Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | BUY | 0.2999999812 | $8.00 |
| 09-01 10:03 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.39 | $8.79 |
| 08-21 17:26 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.1699998861 | $1.00 |
| 08-21 17:25 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.021 | $1.17 |
| 08-13 13:33 | Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | BUY | 0.72 | $11.00 |
| 08-13 13:33 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.126 | $5.32 |
| 08-13 13:32 | Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? | BUY | 0.2806450985 | $3.00 |
| 08-13 13:32 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0979999571 | $2.00 |
| 08-13 13:27 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | BUY | 0.299999925 | $2.00 |
| 08-13 13:27 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0979999734 | $3.00 |
| 08-13 13:24 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | SELL | 0.95 | $15.44 |
| 08-06 00:06 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7599999886 | $8.00 |
| 08-06 00:00 | Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? | SELL | 0.01 | $2.08 |