0xef97d61b2f6fefcb37d566d11e7dc110a150ab2c
0xef97d61b2f6fefcb37d566d11e7dc110a150ab2c
- Realised P&L
- $568.08
- Volume
- $171.7k
- Markets traded
- 48
- Open portfolio
- $104.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded48
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration35.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration19.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$202.65at 0.941Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?
- +$180.61at 0.980Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?
- +$126.82at 0.980Kimberly Guilfoyle out as U.S. Ambassador to Greece by October 31?
- +$10.08at 0.990Will SI.gov launch by October 15?
- +$8.56at 0.999Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 00:38 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.9619999997 | $1.2k |
| 10-16 00:36 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.9619999997 | $1.9k |
| 10-15 20:35 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | BUY | 0.89 | $298.15 |
| 10-15 17:42 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | BUY | 0.9609999848 | $49.95 |
| 10-15 16:23 | Will Koguma peak as a Very strong typhoon? | BUY | 0.9982409174 | $2.6k |
| 10-15 11:56 | Israel military action against Lebanon on October 15? | BUY | 0.999 | $319.68 |
| 10-15 02:13 | Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.9712490331 | $19.40 |
| 10-15 02:00 | Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.9712490785 | $19.44 |
| 10-15 01:58 | Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.9709999991 | $9.69 |
| 10-15 01:57 | Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.9722490345 | $19.42 |
| 10-15 01:09 | Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.9712004228 | $48.44 |
| 10-15 01:00 | Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.9711905385 | $59.69 |
| 10-14 21:14 | Will Lamine Yamal finish in the top 5 of the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.97125 | $19.42 |
| 10-14 18:06 | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? | BUY | 0.987 | $19.74 |
| 10-14 17:52 | Will a European country take military action on Iran by October 31? | BUY | 0.985 | $1.5k |