frostyhopper
0xef4a9530c9db0c24344a3474d2f2cecbe7e45eeb
- Realised P&L
- $85.11
- Volume
- $58.4k
- Markets traded
- 787
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded787
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration31.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration7.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$188.92at 0.081Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
- +$99.94at 0.801Trump out as President by June 30?
- +$89.79at 0.316Noche UFC: Alexa Grasso vs. Manon Fiorot (Women's Flyweight, Main Card)
- +$85.44at 0.403UFC Fight Night: Anthony Hernandez vs. Gregory Rodrigues (Middleweight, Main Card)
- +$80.58at 0.094Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on June 16?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 05:28 | Will Andrew Scott win Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 04:15 | Opensea FDV above $2B one day after launch? | SELL | 0.94 | $24.25 |
| 09-17 04:09 | Will Tempo launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $20.00 |
| 09-17 04:07 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.9619999903 | $20.00 |
| 09-17 04:06 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.9619999903 | $20.00 |
| 09-17 04:04 | Will the Republican Party win the MA-02 House seat? | BUY | 0.05 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 03:52 | Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on September 17? | BUY | 0.98 | $7.85 |
| 09-17 02:13 | Will The Odyssey win Best Cinematography at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.5539905323 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 00:43 | Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by September 30? | BUY | 0.9779999881 | $20.00 |
| 09-16 22:55 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.9299999986 | $20.00 |
| 09-16 22:54 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.9 | $20.00 |
| 09-16 22:54 | Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends? | BUY | 0.9 | $20.00 |
| 09-16 22:45 | Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | SELL | 0.660405 | $13.21 |
| 09-16 22:13 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | BUY | 0.3099999954 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 22:12 | Will Jeremy Strong be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards? | BUY | 0.9 | $2.00 |