PolyBot

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Traders

NivSch

0xef44da58cb054c88b2c19e1d613a8dcb3cd16f3b

Realised P&L
$-2.0k
Volume
$16.1k
Markets traded
29
Open portfolio
$284.54

Can you copy this trader?

unrealisticMultiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-12.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded29
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration75.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
CautionSettled sample3 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration69.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes0.0870.065$197.05$67.95
Cuban regime falls in 2026? · Yes0.1800.135$44.96$15.04
Iran coup attempt by December 31? · Yes0.1470.095$25.91$14.09
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · Yes0.1700.165$9.71$0.29
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30? · Yes0.0400.005$6.91$43.09
Iran full airspace closure by July 27? · Yes0.3090.000$0.00$220.00
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? · No0.5810.000$0.00$30.00
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.3180.000$0.00$160.00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? · Yes0.0270.000$0.00$11.25
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? · Yes0.3000.000$0.00$101.00
Abu Musa Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · Yes0.1010.000$0.00$10.00
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26? · No0.4400.000$0.00$100.00
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31? · Yes0.1170.000$0.00$20.00
Iran full airspace closure by August 31? · Yes0.3560.000$0.00$200.00
Iran full airspace closure by July 31? · Yes0.3500.000$0.00$150.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
07-30 15:18Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?BUY0.429999998$32.09
07-26 20:08Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.0579999982$30.00
07-24 20:00Israel military action against Yemen by July 31?BUY0.1477061239$30.00
07-24 18:44Iran full airspace closure by July 27?BUY0.2099999922$20.00
07-24 18:43Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?BUY0.3899999967$30.00
07-24 18:41Iran coup attempt by December 31?BUY0.1299999951$20.00
07-24 18:41Greater Tunb Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.1201960999$20.00
07-24 18:41Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.1170228544$20.00
07-23 18:44Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?BUY0.5099999984$143.24
07-23 18:44Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 26?BUY0.4399999981$100.00
07-23 16:47Cuban regime falls in 2026?BUY0.16$10.00
07-23 16:46Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?BUY0.4$50.00
07-23 16:46Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 25?BUY0.2341463399$100.00
07-23 16:44Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?BUY0.0803571342$100.00
07-23 16:44Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?BUY0.1$100.00