carkiller530
0xef2f91f75d1878a09ecd42a376d084d3bc808b9c
- Realised P&L
- $15.9k
- Volume
- $230.9k
- Markets traded
- 40
- Open portfolio
- $39.3k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar6.9%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded40
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample18 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration28.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.2kat 0.828Will a Republican win Texas US Senate Election?
- +$5.1kat 0.826Will a Republican win Florida US Senate Election?
- +$2.0kat 0.568Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?
- +$1.6kat 0.830Will a Democrat win Texas US Senate Election?
- +$1.4kat 0.836Will a Republican win Florida in the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 20:44 | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.79 | $3.0k |
| 10-11 20:41 | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.6199999999 | $1.5k |
| 10-11 20:40 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8046248999 | $500.00 |
| 10-11 20:40 | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999999 | $2.0k |
| 10-11 20:38 | Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8499999999 | $1000.00 |
| 10-11 20:35 | Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7827999366 | $3.0k |
| 10-11 20:31 | Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3218538783 | $1000.00 |
| 10-11 20:29 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.802354816 | $900.00 |
| 10-11 20:15 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.1777348679 | $279.05 |
| 10-11 20:10 | Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.8009999975 | $110.00 |
| 05-19 22:58 | Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? | BUY | 0.14 | $39.13 |
| 03-28 14:50 | Trump out as President before 2027? | BUY | 0.82 | $2.9k |
| 03-28 14:50 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.4683422238 | $300.00 |
| 03-28 14:49 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5594057991 | $500.00 |
| 03-14 02:32 | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.5 | $500.00 |