45644t
0xef248d8680d39b2f16b6f22afe36f06732eac761
- Realised P&L
- $6.48
- Volume
- $70.4k
- Markets traded
- 95
- Open portfolio
- $86.04
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded95
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration19.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.580 | 0.590 | $29.50 | +$0.50 |
| Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.360 | 0.490 | $19.60 | +$5.20 |
| Will Ethereum hit $3k by September 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.635 | $19.04 | +$2.55 |
| Will BNB dip to $200 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.979 | 0.967 | $14.50 | −$0.19 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.183 | $3.40 | −$1.60 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET · Up | 0.020 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.70 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET · Up | 0.080 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET · Down | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.36at 0.690Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$6.90at 0.310Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET
- +$6.61at 0.986Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?
- +$6.40at 0.326Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET
- +$5.08at 0.840Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 17:18 | Will BNB dip to $200 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.979 | $14.69 |
| 10-31 17:17 | Will Ethereum hit $4k by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.36 | $14.40 |
| 10-31 17:16 | Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.58 | $29.00 |
| 10-31 17:16 | Will Ethereum hit $3k by September 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.55 | $16.49 |
| 06-02 17:03 | Will DeepSeek have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $20.87 |
| 06-02 17:02 | Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.998 | $14.97 |
| 06-02 17:01 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.996 | $87.65 |
| 05-14 16:20 | Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? | BUY | 0.978 | $20.54 |
| 05-14 16:20 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? | BUY | 0.997 | $21.93 |
| 05-14 16:20 | Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in May? | BUY | 0.997 | $997.00 |
| 05-14 16:18 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET | BUY | 0.08 | $1.00 |
| 05-14 16:13 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET | BUY | 0.2 | $5.00 |
| 05-14 16:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET | BUY | 0.08 | $5.00 |
| 05-14 16:04 | Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET | BUY | 0.8799999859 | $5.00 |
| 05-14 16:03 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $13.80 |