0xef03567fC5a30B665efca7e9eF2e9e3fe6031FbF-1759574216489
0xef03567fc5a30b665efca7e9ef2e9e3fe6031fbf
- Realised P&L
- $929.59
- Volume
- $158.0k
- Markets traded
- 1,586
- Open portfolio
- $67.04
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,586
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration76.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)92.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.905 | $19.89 | −$0.11 |
| Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31? · No | 0.870 | 0.925 | $18.50 | +$1.10 |
| Will Russia capture Mykolaivka by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.988 | 0.982 | $9.81 | −$0.07 |
| Will Russia capture Dobropillia by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.960 | 0.965 | $9.64 | +$0.04 |
| Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.920 | $9.20 | +$0.50 |
| Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from August 10 - August 16? · Yes | 0.386 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$34.70 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$145.65at 0.538Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on February 14?
- +$108.12at 0.743Will Russia capture Myrnohrad by November 30?
- +$106.20at 0.213Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?
- +$102.33at 0.593Will Russia strike Kyiv on February 3, 2026?
- +$94.43at 0.697Will Russia capture Kupiansk by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 14:49 | Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.08 |
| 10-13 06:06 | Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.52 | $20.80 |
| 10-13 06:03 | Will there be 1 earthquake of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.45 | $18.00 |
| 10-13 06:02 | Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | SELL | 0.0509408602 | $0.76 |
| 10-12 21:53 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on October 12? | BUY | 0.998 | $64.91 |
| 10-11 13:56 | Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.44 | $8.80 |
| 10-11 11:21 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.9099999991 | $20.00 |
| 10-11 08:21 | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.9599999693 | $10.00 |
| 10-11 07:55 | Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on October 11? | BUY | 0.997 | $0.08 |
| 10-11 06:58 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12? | BUY | 0.962 | $10.00 |
| 10-11 04:52 | Will the highest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on October 11? | BUY | 0.998 | $263.62 |
| 10-11 04:04 | New pandemic before 2028? | SELL | 0.86 | $17.20 |
| 10-10 17:17 | Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | BUY | 0.49 | $4.90 |
| 10-09 17:59 | Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide? | SELL | 0.39 | $15.59 |
| 10-08 20:54 | Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on October 8? | BUY | 0.998 | $199.60 |