0xee645b5fa7965ff9b2301f75afb67c39ce35eac6
0xee645b5fa7965ff9b2301f75afb67c39ce35eac6
- Realised P&L
- $-5.69
- Volume
- $336.00
- Markets traded
- 96
- Open portfolio
- $7.19
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded96
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration15.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18? · Yes | 0.270 | 0.972 | $3.60 | +$2.60 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.935 | $2.86 | +$1.33 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? · No | 0.550 | 0.400 | $0.73 | −$0.27 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.92at 0.259Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?
- +$4.20at 0.329S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on September 18?
- +$4.20at 0.329SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$2.94at 0.412Will China's CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in July 2026?
- +$2.59at 0.442Will annual inflation be 3.4% in July?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 12:28 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 04:10 | Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18? | BUY | 0.2699999784 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 15:05 | Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 06:59 | Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.7979998931 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 22:58 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 13:58 | Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September? | BUY | 0.6899996964 | $1.00 |
| 10-10 05:47 | Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September? | BUY | 0.3399999388 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 18:05 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026? | BUY | 0.6799998912 | $1.00 |
| 10-09 09:45 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026? | BUY | 0.5729999009 | $1.00 |
| 10-06 22:45 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-05 14:19 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 20:25 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 16:14 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.7699995842 | $1.00 |
| 10-03 05:42 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $1.00 |
| 10-02 07:22 | Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of September 28? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |