grungus
0xee1d23194c78e6381791ab340c758f7cc44ee61b
- Realised P&L
- $-1.24
- Volume
- $574.49
- Markets traded
- 16
- Open portfolio
- $8.98
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded16
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration19.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.129 | 0.027 | $8.98 | −$34.00 |
| Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" this week? · No | 0.521 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.11 |
| Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" this week? · Yes | 0.328 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$9.51 |
| Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31? · No | 0.320 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.40 |
| Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Strait of Hormuz", "Strait", or "Hormuz" this week? · Yes | 0.535 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.62 |
| Will Google say "Banana" during earnings call? · No | 0.240 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.16at 0.503Will Google say "Translate" or "Translation" during earnings call?
- +$9.88at 0.473Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Stock" this week?
- +$8.11at 0.578Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Ukraine" this week?
- +$7.67at 0.605Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Israel" this week?
- +$7.67at 0.605Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Anthropic" or "Claude" this week?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-10 20:21 | Will Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1291613392 | $42.98 |
| 05-02 16:14 | Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Fed" this week? | BUY | 0.76 | $3.80 |
| 05-02 16:12 | Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Epstein" this week? | BUY | 0.76 | $7.60 |
| 05-02 16:10 | Will the NYT front-page headlines say "UFO" or "Alien" this week? | BUY | 0.7302823739 | $20.00 |
| 05-01 20:18 | Nothing Ever Happens: May | BUY | 0.78 | $23.40 |
| 05-01 20:08 | Spirit Airlines shutdown/liquidation by May 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $6.40 |
| 04-27 03:23 | Will Google say "Banana" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.24 | $1.20 |
| 04-27 03:20 | Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Ukraine" this week? | BUY | 0.62 | $6.01 |
| 04-27 03:19 | Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" this week? | BUY | 0.49 | $4.70 |
| 04-27 03:19 | Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Stock" this week? | BUY | 0.4 | $3.81 |
| 04-27 03:17 | Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Strait of Hormuz", "Strait", or "Hormuz" this week? | BUY | 0.52 | $2.50 |
| 04-27 03:17 | Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Zohran" or "Mamdani" this week? | BUY | 0.13 | $3.63 |
| 04-27 03:16 | Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Anthropic" or "Claude" this week? | BUY | 0.68 | $6.63 |
| 04-27 03:16 | Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Israel" this week? | BUY | 0.68 | $6.63 |
| 04-27 03:15 | Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Bitcoin" this week? | BUY | 0.89 | $8.82 |