0xedc5f1f8895a73c692494c99e5087862af6bf800
0xedc5f1f8895a73c692494c99e5087862af6bf800
- Realised P&L
- $-36.86
- Volume
- $649.68
- Markets traded
- 17
- Open portfolio
- $41.45
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded17
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- ClearProfit concentration23.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)58.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration29.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by June 30, 2027? · Yes | 0.570 | 0.345 | $12.11 | −$7.89 |
| Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? · Yes | 0.880 | 0.765 | $11.74 | −$1.76 |
| Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? · No | 0.820 | 0.771 | $9.40 | −$0.60 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.396 | 0.373 | $8.21 | −$0.49 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.831 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET · Down | 0.700 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.82at 0.670Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
- +$8.99at 0.690Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$8.27at 0.756Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
- +$5.32at 0.790Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
- +$5.00at 0.790Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 16:25 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET | BUY | 0.699999965 | $2.00 |
| 10-24 16:50 | Will the Malaysian House of Representatives be dissolved by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5699999886 | $20.00 |
| 10-24 16:46 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8309999547 | $10.00 |
| 04-22 03:23 | Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | BUY | 0.9199998515 | $5.70 |
| 04-22 03:23 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | SELL | 0.14 | $5.27 |
| 04-15 09:39 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | BUY | 0.4699999918 | $17.70 |
| 04-15 08:41 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | SELL | 0.54 | $18.32 |
| 04-13 14:11 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.39599999 | $8.70 |
| 04-13 14:09 | Will "The Faces of Death" score at least 66 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | SELL | 0.976 | $9.09 |
| 04-12 23:18 | Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5399999936 | $18.60 |
| 04-12 23:02 | Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? | BUY | 0.8199999902 | $10.00 |
| 04-12 23:01 | Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election? | SELL | 0.999 | $29.82 |
| 04-09 14:19 | Will "The Faces of Death" score at least 66 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer? | BUY | 0.7299999807 | $6.80 |
| 04-09 14:14 | Iran leadership change by April 30? | SELL | 0.12 | $5.85 |
| 03-31 06:41 | Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | BUY | 0.5599999941 | $19.00 |