PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

EducatedGuess69420

0xed49defb36f77e74912c0ff38d2667317bad8783

Realised P&L
$-57.7k
Volume
$1.48M
Markets traded
87
Open portfolio
$25.0k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded87
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration27.6% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration24.4% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes0.5840.655$6.1k+$658.19
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes0.0570.064$5.6k+$594.31
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0450.116$5.2k+$3.1k
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.5900.645$2.1k+$181.42
Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes0.1580.055$1.9k$3.5k
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0280.034$1.7k+$260.01
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? · Yes0.5790.175$1.2k$2.7k
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0160.011$1.0k$560.06
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes0.0300.004$151.78$848.20
US forces enter Iran by March 7? · Yes0.1670.000$0.00$72.74
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET · Down0.3410.000$0.00$200.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET · Down0.9700.000$0.00$200.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET · Up0.5430.000$0.00$500.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET · Up0.3500.000$0.00$14.78
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET · Up0.2100.000$0.00$100.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-17 00:57Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?SELL0.17$1.2k
09-15 20:38Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.1$1.3k
09-14 21:32Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.1199999996$11.00
09-10 19:18Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.3499999941$8.88
09-10 16:43Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.37$1.3k
09-10 16:42US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?SELL0.5785863062$1.3k
09-10 07:36Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.4499999999$1.3k
09-10 07:35US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?SELL0.5846413871$1.4k
09-09 14:37Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.4599999034$2.00
09-08 07:07Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.4799998464$1.00
09-07 01:15Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.5099998317$1.00
09-06 07:47Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.5$1.00
09-05 08:14Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.4899999286$2.95
09-03 20:51Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.579999826$1.00
09-03 00:04Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.4499999987$50.35