churna
0xed116e6d4190e5c09f950a893074b5a5aef710be
- Realised P&L
- $4.4k
- Volume
- $810.8k
- Markets traded
- 297
- Open portfolio
- $14.7k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded297
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$938.09at 0.873Trump out as President by June 30?
- +$883.93at 0.706Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026?
- +$435.00at 0.840Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
- +$408.74at 0.495Will voter turnout be 60-64% in the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
- +$361.26at 0.718Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in April?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-09 17:43 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7620966758 | $200.00 |
| 09-09 17:43 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $200.00 |
| 08-21 00:37 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.961 | $2.0k |
| 08-21 00:37 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | SELL | 0.87 | $2.7k |
| 08-21 00:37 | Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9759288236 | $4.0k |
| 08-21 00:35 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.997 | $406.94 |
| 08-21 00:35 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SELL | 0.83 | $335.48 |
| 08-19 15:38 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.48 | $1.1k |
| 08-19 15:38 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August? | BUY | 0.6465517241 | $300.00 |
| 08-17 04:18 | Fed rate hike in 2026? | SELL | 0.46 | $342.56 |
| 08-06 19:13 | Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.6 | $330.08 |
| 08-06 19:12 | Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested by September 30? | BUY | 0.983 | $575.53 |
| 08-06 19:09 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.95 | $2.1k |
| 08-06 19:08 | Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.986 | $2.0k |
| 08-06 19:03 | Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9743773918 | $3.0k |