0xEcb1f2E73018a6438E7296A7b379d6eD8451c94a-1771748596083
0xecb1f2e73018a6438e7296a7b379d6ed8451c94a
- Realised P&L
- $203.50
- Volume
- $5.7k
- Markets traded
- 43
- Open portfolio
- $12.15
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded43
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.9% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample27 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)77.8%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration58.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$131.58at 0.067Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?
- +$63.95at 0.190Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?
- +$26.01at 0.568Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?
- +$20.21at 0.497Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?
- +$14.68at 0.630US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-19 16:17 | Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.3799999742 | $5.00 |
| 06-16 09:53 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? | BUY | 0.6879999997 | $20.00 |
| 06-14 18:52 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.002999997 | $1.00 |
| 06-07 08:01 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2599999839 | $10.00 |
| 06-07 08:01 | Will Russia capture Kupiansk by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $5.00 |
| 06-05 18:59 | Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 06-04 08:00 | Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? | BUY | 0.2239999238 | $2.00 |
| 06-04 07:58 | Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.0329999844 | $2.00 |
| 05-21 17:22 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.024 | $3.00 |
| 05-07 16:42 | Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $1.00 |
| 05-07 16:42 | Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0769999348 | $1.00 |
| 05-07 16:40 | Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? | BUY | 0.4499999212 | $2.00 |
| 05-07 16:39 | Will Trump speak to Mohammed bin Salman in May? | BUY | 0.1089999139 | $1.00 |
| 05-07 16:39 | Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in May? | BUY | 0.0389999635 | $1.00 |
| 05-02 14:09 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another country? | BUY | 0.0063940663 | $3.00 |