masniklas96
0xeca746d623cc4cf235c765387976a4c3be000eec
- Realised P&L
- $-5.72
- Volume
- $501.40
- Markets traded
- 9
- Open portfolio
- $1.44
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded9
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration47.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample5 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration90.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes | 0.250 | 0.065 | $1.30 | −$3.70 |
| Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.001 | $0.14 | −$9.86 |
| Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will UConn win the 2026 Women's NCAA Tournament? · Yes | 0.710 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.49at 0.371NCAA Tournament: 1 seed knocked out before round of 16?
- +$5.00at 0.500ChatGPT Outage by April 3?
- +$2.86at 0.140New COVID variant of concern before 2027?
- +$0.75at 0.870Will JD Vance say "American Dream" during Michigan visit?
- +$0.75at 0.870Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-10 05:30 | Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? | BUY | 0.2 | $5.00 |
| 04-04 12:22 | New COVID variant of concern before 2027? | SELL | 0.18 | $12.86 |
| 03-26 07:10 | New COVID variant of concern before 2027? | BUY | 0.1399999888 | $10.00 |
| 03-25 07:17 | ChatGPT Outage by April 3? | BUY | 0.5 | $5.00 |
| 03-24 07:26 | Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections? | BUY | 0.8699999983 | $5.00 |
| 03-23 09:28 | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $5.00 |
| 03-21 07:12 | NCAA Tournament: 1 seed knocked out before round of 16? | BUY | 0.3706593557 | $5.00 |
| 03-20 06:57 | Will UConn win the 2026 Women's NCAA Tournament? | BUY | 0.7099998694 | $5.00 |
| 03-18 08:55 | Will JD Vance say "American Dream" during Michigan visit? | BUY | 0.8699999983 | $5.00 |
| 03-18 05:22 | Will Sadegh Larijani be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0368292328 | $10.00 |