PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0xEbe3291881167f0282B0868717c9d0463FbE10d8-1780340744299

0xebe3291881167f0282b0868717c9d0463fbe10d8

Realised P&L
$-410.34
Volume
$16.5k
Markets traded
205
Open portfolio
$73.47

Can you copy this trader?

unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded205
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)2.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration34.1% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027? · No0.2100.195$25.07−$1.93
Microsoft matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? · Yes0.2000.180$16.19−$1.80
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026? · Yes0.4500.325$9.31−$3.58
Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on October 1? · Yes0.0200.235$7.99+$7.31
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? · No0.3660.315$6.55−$1.06
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? · No0.4800.270$5.56−$4.33
Will Andris Kulbergs be the next Prime Minister of Latvia? · No0.0400.037$1.49−$0.12
Will Trump speak to Miguel Díaz-Canel by October 31? · Yes0.1100.048$1.01−$1.30
Will it rain in Washington, DC on October 1? · Yes0.0310.015$0.30−$0.32

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-01 09:42Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026?SELL0.08$3.50
10-01 09:34Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?SELL0.4$16.11
10-01 09:30Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2027?SELL0.6$18.00
10-01 09:23Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch?SELL0.3533333333$10.60
10-01 09:16Will Avi Dichter be the next Israeli Minister of National Security?SELL0.8217766497$3.24
10-01 09:04Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of October 2026?SELL0.58$2.76
10-01 09:03Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026?SELL0.42$16.80
10-01 08:49Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?SELL0.31$1.62
10-01 08:49Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?SELL0.31$9.30
10-01 08:12Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?SELL0.51$18.54
10-01 06:52Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027?SELL0.16$0.81
10-01 06:51Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?SELL0.7$14.00
10-01 06:16Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S?SELL0.2$12.00
10-01 05:12Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?SELL0.54$21.60
10-01 03:35Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?SELL0.77$15.40