0xEbe3291881167f0282B0868717c9d0463FbE10d8-1780340744299
0xebe3291881167f0282b0868717c9d0463fbe10d8
- Realised P&L
- $-410.34
- Volume
- $16.5k
- Markets traded
- 205
- Open portfolio
- $73.47
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded205
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)2.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027? · No | 0.210 | 0.195 | $25.07 | −$1.93 |
| Microsoft matches Anthropic's evaluator commitment by October 31? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.180 | $16.19 | −$1.80 |
| Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of November 2026? · Yes | 0.450 | 0.325 | $9.31 | −$3.58 |
| Will it rain in Phoenix, AZ on October 1? · Yes | 0.020 | 0.235 | $7.99 | +$7.31 |
| Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of October 2026? · No | 0.366 | 0.315 | $6.55 | −$1.06 |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.480 | 0.270 | $5.56 | −$4.33 |
| Will Andris Kulbergs be the next Prime Minister of Latvia? · No | 0.040 | 0.037 | $1.49 | −$0.12 |
| Will Trump speak to Miguel Díaz-Canel by October 31? · Yes | 0.110 | 0.048 | $1.01 | −$1.30 |
| Will it rain in Washington, DC on October 1? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.015 | $0.30 | −$0.32 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.03at 0.886Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?
- +$0.76at 0.200US and Iran sign an agreement by July 31, 2026?
- +$0.50at 0.017Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 1.5% and 1.9%?
- +$0.00at 0.440EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by October 31?
- +$0.00at 0.130Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by September 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-01 09:42 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model on LiveBench (Overall) at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.08 | $3.50 |
| 10-01 09:34 | Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats? | SELL | 0.4 | $16.11 |
| 10-01 09:30 | Will Tuyo launch a token by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.6 | $18.00 |
| 10-01 09:23 | Arc FDV above $500M one day after launch? | SELL | 0.3533333333 | $10.60 |
| 10-01 09:16 | Will Avi Dichter be the next Israeli Minister of National Security? | SELL | 0.8217766497 | $3.24 |
| 10-01 09:04 | Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.00T and $4.50T at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $2.76 |
| 10-01 09:03 | Will the Ornn A100 Index be between $0.75 and $1.00 on October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.42 | $16.80 |
| 10-01 08:49 | Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31? | SELL | 0.31 | $1.62 |
| 10-01 08:49 | Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31? | SELL | 0.31 | $9.30 |
| 10-01 08:12 | Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026? | SELL | 0.51 | $18.54 |
| 10-01 06:52 | Will the 30-year Treasury yield hit 5.65% before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $0.81 |
| 10-01 06:51 | Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $14.00 |
| 10-01 06:16 | Will the next governing coalition of Sweden include S? | SELL | 0.2 | $12.00 |
| 10-01 05:12 | Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? | SELL | 0.54 | $21.60 |
| 10-01 03:35 | Will Google be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.77 | $15.40 |