longtermgains
0xebdc7650c1a441894071899c2941eea0bd5fbf08
- Realised P&L
- $-3.4k
- Volume
- $225.5k
- Markets traded
- 102
- Open portfolio
- $3.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded102
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration34.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$396.15at 0.761Will Denmark be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?
- +$139.28at 0.787Will Croatia advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?
- +$99.51at 0.445Will Alexander Rybak win Melodi Grand Prix 2026?
- +$95.93at 0.759Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?
- +$88.31at 0.321Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-11 19:06 | Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.014 | $27.38 |
| 09-11 15:54 | Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.002 | $3.14 |
| 09-11 11:57 | Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.002 | $3.77 |
| 09-03 09:51 | Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat? | BUY | 0.72 | $76.08 |
| 09-03 09:46 | Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat? | BUY | 0.72 | $53.94 |
| 09-03 09:45 | Will the Republican Party win the KY-06 House seat? | BUY | 0.71 | $34.09 |
| 09-02 00:39 | Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.81 | $81.00 |
| 08-30 01:39 | Will Jimmie Åkesson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | BUY | 0.006 | $1.06 |
| 08-26 15:30 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.49 | $24.50 |
| 08-04 17:32 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 52 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.129 | $29.67 |
| 08-04 17:32 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.14 | $32.06 |
| 08-04 17:30 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.14 | $30.80 |
| 08-04 17:30 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 49 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.13 | $1.30 |
| 08-04 17:29 | Will the Republican Party hold exactly 48 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.12 | $25.20 |
| 08-04 17:28 | Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? | BUY | 0.24 | $49.92 |