0xeba30302e119e45bd3d68d62eb5fa67ceb3f3443
0xeba30302e119e45bd3d68d62eb5fa67ceb3f3443
- Realised P&L
- $6.35
- Volume
- $271.39
- Markets traded
- 62
- Open portfolio
- $13.21
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded62
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration14.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration32.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.861 | 0.991 | $4.29 | +$0.56 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 1.000 | $2.70 | +$0.70 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.935 | $2.40 | +$0.40 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? · No | 0.790 | 0.755 | $1.91 | −$0.09 |
| Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of September 21 2026? · No | 0.630 | 0.725 | $1.91 | +$0.25 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
| Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? · No | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?
- +$5.94at 0.258Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.75 and $3.00 on August 31, 2026?
- +$5.07at 0.290Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?
- +$3.35at 0.379Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $75 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$2.95at 0.410Will Trump say "Kamala" during remarks in New York?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-21 07:17 | Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (HIGH) $264 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.6299999127 | $1.66 |
| 09-20 23:11 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $340 Week of September 21 2026? | BUY | 0.419999979 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 15:11 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 09-20 03:59 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026? | BUY | 0.7399999186 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 15:29 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 09-19 07:23 | Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23? | BUY | 0.3699999593 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 22:59 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 14:19 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999782 | $2.00 |
| 09-18 03:27 | Will Muse be #3 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 18:41 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.7899999289 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 10:23 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $2.00 |
| 09-17 10:22 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.4599999725 | $1.67 |
| 09-17 01:16 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 09-16 17:15 | Will Vinted be #3 Free App in the US Apple App Store on September 18? | BUY | 0.7399999186 | $2.00 |
| 09-14 20:34 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $650 Week of September 14 2026? | BUY | 0.4899999584 | $2.00 |