456ythgbvcadscvb
0xeb6f0a13ea8c5a7a0514c25495adbe815c1025f0
- Realised P&L
- $207.6k
- Volume
- $46.30M
- Markets traded
- 1,408
- Open portfolio
- $4.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded1,408
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration40.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)72.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Jacksonville Jaguars make the 2027 NFL Playoffs? · Yes | 0.546 | 0.875 | $1.7k | +$632.13 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House · Yes | 0.348 | 0.235 | $1.6k | −$792.19 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.605 | 0.439 | $445.54 | −$169.17 |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · No | 0.610 | 0.435 | $441.89 | −$177.77 |
| Will Marco Rubio announce a presidential run before 2028? · No | 0.598 | 0.540 | $30.24 | −$3.23 |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? · No | 0.630 | 0.715 | $7.72 | +$0.92 |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election? · No | 0.740 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$370.00 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.028 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$555.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$44.1kat 0.547Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$26.2kat 0.752Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$19.2kat 0.657Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$15.2kat 0.930Fed rate hike in 2026?
- +$14.0kat 0.402Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 20:54 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.24 | $6.2k |
| 11-01 16:40 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.22 | $2.4k |
| 11-01 16:36 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.2 | $1.1k |
| 11-01 16:34 | Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.19 | $1.8k |
| 10-29 13:22 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.68 | $680.00 |
| 10-29 13:22 | Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.7 | $1.8k |
| 10-29 13:21 | Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.780246042 | $3.3k |
| 10-29 13:21 | Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026? | SELL | 0.78 | $753.11 |
| 10-29 13:21 | Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.9046718 | $1.8k |
| 10-29 13:21 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.9084964062 | $2.4k |
| 10-29 13:21 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.7603740877 | $15.7k |
| 10-28 21:02 | Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $784.80 |
| 10-28 18:57 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.79 | $481.90 |
| 10-28 16:48 | Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.964986036 | $16.0k |
| 10-28 16:48 | Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? | SELL | 0.9647390823 | $18.8k |