78979879879879
0xeb490d0534bb68b4c2ce139b219a728cd2c3693e
- Realised P&L
- $-126.6k
- Volume
- $5.31M
- Markets traded
- 296
- Open portfolio
- $380.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded296
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$16.7kat 0.877Israel closes its airspace by June 30?
- +$10.8kat 0.892Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?
- +$8.3kat 0.888Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
- +$8.1kat 0.903Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in July?
- +$7.9kat 0.917US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 01:17 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8099999998 | $46.00 |
| 09-17 01:17 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.7892096288 | $68.00 |
| 09-17 01:15 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Paraná? | SELL | 0.9653856537 | $25.03 |
| 09-17 01:15 | Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo? | SELL | 0.93 | $92.07 |
| 09-17 00:09 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September? | BUY | 0.7464652492 | $431.84 |
| 09-17 00:08 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 36% and 39% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.86 | $842.00 |
| 09-17 00:06 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8146293214 | $1.1k |
| 09-17 00:03 | Will Lula win between 38% and 41% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8799999917 | $17.00 |
| 09-16 23:50 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.7784487635 | $275.00 |
| 09-16 23:49 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.7259182825 | $473.00 |
| 09-16 23:47 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in September? | BUY | 0.8989673987 | $148.00 |
| 09-16 23:47 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in September? | BUY | 0.878909524 | $340.00 |
| 09-16 23:15 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win 39% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.6635071011 | $40.00 |
| 09-16 23:13 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $4.0k |
| 09-16 14:01 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.5469999983 | $73.38 |