0xeb400596147872fd032f5197a0bae5f488f8c1fa
- Realised P&L
- $2.78
- Volume
- $69.93
- Markets traded
- 18
- Open portfolio
- $7.32
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar4.0%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded18
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration52.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration39.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.865 | $2.87 | +$0.68 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.895 | $2.45 | +$0.26 |
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 8? · Yes | 0.660 | 0.545 | $1.81 | −$0.38 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.770 | 0.145 | $0.19 | −$0.82 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$6.93at 0.240Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026?
- +$1.71at 0.430Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting?
- +$1.52at 0.590Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas?
- +$1.39at 0.610Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $315 Week of July 27 2026?
- +$1.10at 0.640Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 08:09 | Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.50 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.24 | $2.19 |
| 08-04 12:07 | Will Trump say "Hell" 8+ times during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.5899999542 | $2.19 |
| 08-04 04:06 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.6599999578 | $2.19 |
| 08-03 20:06 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.19 |
| 08-03 11:51 | Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $580 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999097 | $2.19 |
| 08-03 03:50 | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 8? | BUY | 0.6599999578 | $2.19 |
| 08-02 19:36 | Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.4899999687 | $2.19 |
| 08-02 01:49 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.7699998323 | $1.01 |
| 08-01 16:52 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2? | BUY | 0.7599998195 | $2.19 |
| 08-01 05:08 | Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.04 |
| 07-31 21:08 | New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.04 |
| 07-31 13:06 | Will Trump say "Transgender" during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.96 | $3.88 |
| 07-30 04:24 | Will Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.43 | $1.29 |
| 07-29 16:44 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5099999262 | $2.21 |
| 07-29 07:35 | Will Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.49 | $1.96 |