adrianavase
0xeb12eeba71d48fb36dacf8b3b74a23af811f1a72
- Realised P&L
- $9.78
- Volume
- $1.6k
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $208.34
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration27.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.977 | 0.989 | $56.47 | +$0.69 |
| Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027? · No | 0.965 | 0.973 | $55.27 | +$0.45 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the CA-13 House seat? · Yes | 0.956 | 0.955 | $55.10 | −$0.06 |
| Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 7M ETH before 2027? · No | 0.940 | 0.830 | $41.50 | −$5.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.50at 0.900SBF released from custody in 2026?
- +$2.20at 0.956Gensyn FDV above $2B one day after launch?
- +$1.35at 0.973Will LeBron James play for the Minnesota Timberwolves in 2026-27?
- +$0.75at 0.972Macron out by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.55at 0.983Netanyahu out by June 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-30 06:31 | Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.999 | $49.95 |
| 04-08 06:16 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.992 | $19.84 |