0xeada258b28004b972d8d4990a67a9ec92b35004a
0xeada258b28004b972d8d4990a67a9ec92b35004a
- Realised P&L
- $-17.82
- Volume
- $214.74
- Markets traded
- 39
- Open portfolio
- $15.58
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-8.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded39
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.6% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample36 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · No | 0.740 | 0.991 | $13.53 | +$3.42 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in September? · No | 0.660 | 0.695 | $1.05 | +$0.05 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? · No | 0.770 | 0.765 | $0.99 | −$0.01 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.29at 0.532Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
- +$4.18at 0.331Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
- +$1.83at 0.522Will France win on 2026-07-18?
- +$1.73at 0.422Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.57at 0.560Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 10+ times during cabinet meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 05:35 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 20:45 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $360 in September? | BUY | 0.6599997888 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 12:04 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 08-12 03:31 | Will Trump say "Think About It" during remarks in New York? | BUY | 0.6199999551 | $1.38 |
| 08-08 18:42 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.3699999112 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 18:39 | Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? | BUY | 0.77 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 10:37 | Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.459999885 | $2.00 |
| 08-06 01:30 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.2199999164 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 17:29 | Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 6 to August 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.74 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 09:29 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.229999916 | $2.00 |
| 08-05 01:28 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 05:27 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.5499999725 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 09:06 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 00:51 | Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 16:50 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.32 | $2.00 |